The risk tent

Download as pdf: Structured risk management, 19pp

Risk tent

Having agreed on which mountain, the “risk tent” represents the shelter of structured risk management, without a reliable framework, your risk assessment collapses under pressure. Choosing the right methodology provides the support structure that keeps your organisation protected, even when conditions change.

Quick reference

New to risk assessment? Start with OCTAVE. It is the most accessible for organisations without dedicated risk management teams and emphasises business stakeholder involvement.

Need regulatory compliance? EBIOS aligns well with EU frameworks and ISO standards, particularly in regulated industries.

Want quantitative metrics? MEHARI provides structured scoring for risk prioritisation and board reporting.

Choosing your risk map

Before assessing risk, you need a method that everyone can follow without getting lost. A good risk assessment approach clearly identifies potential impacts, evaluates how likely they are, produces consistent results, and stays reliable even when things change.

There are several established ways to do this:

  • OCTAVE – a self-directed method focused on aligning risks with organisational goals. It looks beyond technology to consider how strategy, culture, and practices affect security. Best for organisations that want to involve business stakeholders directly in identifying and prioritising risks, rather than leaving it solely to IT teams.

  • MEHARI – a modular European framework that integrates neatly with other management systems. It offers tools for analysing and managing risks throughout the security lifecycle. Ideal for organisations needing quantitative risk scores for board reporting or integration with existing management frameworks.

  • EBIOS – a French-developed method that defines security needs and objectives before diving into technical risks, ensuring that every control serves a clear business purpose. Well-suited for regulated environments and organisations needing to demonstrate compliance with EU frameworks.

Each approach gets you to the same goal: understanding what could go wrong, how bad it could get, and how to keep climbing safely with a consistent, repeatable map.

Which methodology should you choose?

Choose OCTAVE if…

Choose MEHARI if…

Choose EBIOS if…

You want business stakeholder involvement

You need quantitative risk scores

You want to start with security objectives

Your organisation values self-direction

You need to integrate with existing management systems

You work in a regulated industry (especially EU)

You focus on operational risk

You want modular, scalable assessment

You need to demonstrate compliance

You have 10-500 employees without dedicated risk teams

You need board-ready metrics and reporting

You require alignment with ISO 27001 or NIS2

Note: Each table below reflects its methodology’s focus, OCTAVE emphasises threat sources and assets, MEHARI uses quantitative scoring, and EBIOS centres on security objectives. Choose the style that best fits your organisational culture and reporting needs.

OCTAVE style

Self-directed, organisational focus, identifying threats, assets, and impacts

Threat source definitions:

  • Internal – employees, contractors, insiders with legitimate access

  • External – attackers, competitors, malicious actors

  • Environmental – natural disasters, infrastructure failures, climate events

  • Accidental – human error, unintentional actions

Security area

Vulnerability

Example threats

Asset affected

Threat source

Impact

Suggested mitigating control

Hardware

Outdated firmware, default passwords

Physical tampering, malware installation

Devices

Internal/External

Operational disruption, compromise

Automated firmware management, version control, secure configuration baselines, device hardening

Hardware

Unsecured USB ports

Malware introduction via removable media

Devices

Internal/External

Malware infection, data theft

Disable/lock unused ports, enforce removable media policies, endpoint protection

Software

Unpatched OS or applications

Exploitation, ransomware

Systems

External

System compromise, data loss

Automated patch management, vulnerability scanning, patch testing procedures

Software

Misconfigured web apps or APIs

SQL injection, XSS, data exposure

Applications

External

Data theft, downtime

Secure coding standards, code review, penetration testing, API security testing

Data/Information

Unencrypted data at rest

Data theft, unauthorised access

Data

External

Confidentiality breach

Encryption at rest, key management, data classification

Data/Information

Inadequate data classification

Mishandling of sensitive data

Data

Internal

Compliance violations, data leakage

Data classification scheme, labelling, handling procedures

Network

Open/misconfigured ports

Unauthorised access, network scanning

Network

External

Breach of perimeter

Firewall rules, network hardening, regular port scanning, change control

Network

Weak VPN/Wi-Fi credentials

Brute force, credential stuffing

Network

External

Account takeover, network compromise

Strong password policy, MFA, VPN hardening, WPA3

Cloud/SaaS

Misconfigured cloud storage

Data exposure, unauthorised access

Cloud services

Internal/External

Data leakage

Cloud security posture management, least privilege, regular audits

Cloud/SaaS

Inadequate cloud access controls

Unauthorised resource access

Cloud services

Internal/External

Data compromise

IAM policies, MFA, privileged access management, regular access reviews

Mobile

Lost or stolen mobile devices

Data theft, unauthorised access

Devices

External/Accidental

Confidentiality loss

Remote wipe, encryption, device tracking, clear desk policy

Mobile

BYOD security risks

Malware, data leakage

Devices/Systems

Internal/External

Data compromise

BYOD policy, MDM, containerisation

Human

Weak/reused passwords

Credential theft, account takeover

Accounts

Internal/External

Account compromise, data theft

Password policies, password managers, MFA, breach monitoring, training

Human

Phishing susceptibility

Malware execution, data theft

Accounts

External

Compromise, data breach

Awareness training, simulated phishing exercises, email filtering, reporting mechanisms

Physical/Site

Uncontrolled physical access

Theft of devices, media

Facilities

Internal/External

Loss of devices, data

Badge access, locks, surveillance cameras, visitor controls, access logs

Physical/Site

Poor environmental controls

Fire/flood → system damage

Facilities

Environmental

System damage, downtime

HVAC, fire suppression, water detection, monitoring

Organisational

Missing or outdated policies/procedures

Compliance breaches, inconsistent practices

Organisation

Internal

Non-compliance, operational inefficiency

Policy creation, regular review, awareness, version control

Organisational

Lack of continuity/incident planning

Extended downtime, data loss

Organisation

Internal/External

Business disruption

BCP/DR plans, testing, documented procedures, communication plans

Backup/Recovery

Untested backup procedures

Recovery failures, data loss

Data

Internal

Data loss, downtime

Regular backup testing, documented recovery procedures, RTO/RPO

Backup/Recovery

Insufficient backup frequency

Data loss between backups

Data

Accidental

Data gaps

Risk-based backup schedule, automated backups, monitoring and alerting

Hardware

Insufficient periodic replacement schedule

Device failures, degraded security

Devices

Internal

Operational inefficiency

Equipment lifecycle management, replacement schedules, asset tracking

Software

Insecure third-party libraries

Supply chain compromise

Systems

External

Compromise, malware

Dependency management, software composition analysis, supplier security assessment

Network

Lack of network segmentation

Lateral movement

Network

Internal/External

Breach escalation

VLANs, DMZ, zero-trust, micro-segmentation, ACLs

Cloud/SaaS

Shadow cloud services

Data leakage, compliance violations

Cloud services

Internal

Data leakage

CASB, approved service catalogue, monitoring

MEHARI style

Threat-oriented, quantitative scoring, risk treatment plan

Risk scoring guide:

  • Likelihood: Low (rare) / Medium (occasional) / High (frequent or expected)

  • Consequence: Low (minimal impact) / Medium (moderate impact) / High (severe impact)

  • Risk Score: Combination of likelihood and consequence

    • High: Requires immediate action and senior management attention

    • Medium-High: Action needed within defined timeframe (typically 3-6 months)

    • Medium: Monitor and plan mitigation within 6-12 months

    • Low: Accept or monitor periodically

Security area

Vulnerability

Threat

Likelihood

Consequence

Risk Score

Suggested mitigating control

Hardware

Susceptible to temperature/humidity variations

Equipment malfunction, data loss

Medium

High

Medium-High

Environmental controls (HVAC, monitoring, alarms), temperature thresholds

Hardware

Lack of device hardening

Exploitation, malware installation

High

High

High

Device hardening standards, configuration baselines, regular security audits, monitoring

Software

Misconfiguration of software

System downtime, data exposure

Medium

High

Medium-High

Configuration management, change control, security baselines, automated compliance checks

Software

Misuse of software by users

Data corruption, unauthorised actions

Medium

Medium

Medium

User training, access controls, activity monitoring, approval workflows

Data/Information

Poor data retention practices

Compliance violations, data exposure

Medium

High

Medium-High

Retention policies, automated deletion, archive procedures

Data/Information

Inadequate data backup

Data loss, business disruption

Medium

High

Medium-High

Regular backups, backup testing, offsite storage, recovery procedures

Network

Insufficient monitoring

Undetected intrusions

High

High

High

SIEM, alerting, log review, anomaly detection, SOC

Network

Proof of sending/receiving messages lacking

Message tampering, spoofing

Medium

Medium

Medium

Digital signatures, non-repudiation mechanisms, secure protocols (S/MIME, TLS)

Cloud/SaaS

Misconfigured cloud storage

Data exposure, unauthorised access

High

High

High

Cloud security posture management, least privilege, regular audits

Mobile

Inadequate mobile device management

Unpatched devices, policy violations

Medium

Medium

Medium

MDM solution, automated patching, compliance monitoring, device inventory

Human

Excessive privileges

Insider misuse, sabotage

Medium

High

Medium-High

Role-based access, least privilege, periodic reviews, approval workflows

Human

Absence of key personnel

Delayed response, unmonitored systems

Medium

Medium

Medium

Cross-training, shift coverage, succession planning, documented procedures

Physical/Site

Inadequate visitor management

Tailgating, unauthorised access

Medium

Medium

Medium

Visitor logs, escorts, badge system, policy enforcement, reception

Physical/Site

Insecure storage of backups

Data theft, destruction

Medium

High

Medium-High

Offsite encrypted backups, secure storage, access controls

Organisational

Poor vendor management

Third-party compromise

Medium

High

Medium-High

Vendor risk assessments, security requirements in contracts, monitoring

Organisational

Weak audit and monitoring

Undetected insider activity

Medium

Medium

Medium

Centralised logging, audit trail reviews, automated alerting, periodic audits

Backup/Recovery

Lack of backup verification

Corrupted or incomplete backups

Medium

High

Medium-High

Automated verification, integrity checks, regular restoration tests

Backup/Recovery

Untested backup procedures

Recovery failures, data loss

Medium

High

Medium-High

Regular backup testing, documented recovery procedures, RTO/RPO

Hardware

End-of-life devices still in use

No patches, unsupported security

Medium

High

Medium-High

Retirement plan, replacement schedule, asset lifecycle policy

Network

Insecure network architecture

Lateral movement, MITM attacks

Medium

High

Medium-High

Network design review, defence in depth, segmentation, secure routing protocols

Network

Unprotected network connections

Eavesdropping, data interception

Medium

High

Medium-High

Encrypted protocols (TLS 1.3+), VPN, secure Wi-Fi (WPA3), certificate validation

Cloud/SaaS

Shadow cloud services

Data leakage, compliance violations

Medium

High

Medium-High

CASB, approved service catalogue, monitoring

Mobile

BYOD security risks

Malware, data leakage

Medium

Medium

Medium

BYOD policy, MDM, containerisation

Human

Shadow IT usage

Use of unapproved software/services

Medium

Medium

Medium

IT asset inventory, approval processes, monitoring, user education

EBIOS style

Risk expressed in terms of security objectives and threat scenarios

Security objectives:

  • Confidentiality: Protecting information from unauthorised disclosure

  • Integrity: Ensuring information accuracy and preventing unauthorised modification

  • Availability: Ensuring systems and data are accessible when needed

  • Traceability: Maintaining audit trails for accountability

  • Authenticity: Verifying identity and origin of information

  • Non-repudiation: Preventing denial of actions taken

  • Compliance: Adherence to legal, regulatory, and policy requirements

Security area

Vulnerability

Security objective affected

Threat scenario

Likelihood

Severity

Countermeasures

Hardware

Poor cable management

Availability

Accidental disconnection

Medium

Medium

Structured cabling, cable covers, access restriction, physical inspections

Software

Legacy or unsupported software

Integrity

System compromise, incompatibility

Medium

Medium

Software upgrade plan, vendor support agreements, migration roadmap

Data/Information

Unencrypted data at rest

Confidentiality

Data theft

Medium

High

Encryption at rest, key management, data classification

Network

Misconfigured load balancers/proxies

Availability

Traffic interception, service disruption

Medium

High

Configuration review, security hardening, access control, health monitoring

Cloud/SaaS

Inadequate cloud access controls

Confidentiality

Unauthorised resource access

Medium

High

IAM policies, MFA, privileged access management, regular access reviews

Mobile

Lost/stolen mobile devices

Confidentiality

Data theft

Medium

High

Remote wipe, encryption, device tracking, clear desk policy

Human

Inadequate security awareness

Compliance

Security incidents

Medium

Medium

Regular training, role-specific education, testing, security champions programme

Physical/Site

Inadequate power protection

Availability

Outages, device damage

Medium

High

UPS, surge protection, backup generators, monitoring

Physical/Site

Improper disposal of equipment/media

Confidentiality

Data recovery from discarded items

Medium

High

Secure disposal procedures, data wiping, physical destruction, certificates of destruction

Organisational

Inadequate staff training

Compliance

Mistakes, security incidents

Medium

Medium

Comprehensive awareness programmes, role-based training, testing, continuous learning

Backup/Recovery

Insufficient backup frequency

Availability

Data loss between backups

Medium

High

Risk-based backup schedule, automated backups, monitoring and alerting

Backup/Recovery

Untested backup procedures

Availability

Recovery failures

Medium

High

Regular backup testing, documented recovery procedures, RTO/RPO

Hardware

Insufficient periodic replacement schedule

Availability

Device failures

Medium

Medium

Equipment lifecycle management, replacement schedules, asset tracking

Software

Insecure third-party libraries

Integrity

Supply chain compromise

Medium

High

Dependency management, software composition analysis, supplier security assessment

Network

Lack of network segmentation

Integrity

Lateral movement

Medium

High

VLANs, DMZ, zero-trust, micro-segmentation, ACLs

Network

Weak VPN/Wi-Fi credentials

Confidentiality, Authenticity

Credential theft

Medium

High

Strong password policy, MFA, VPN hardening, WPA3

Cloud/SaaS

Misconfigured cloud storage

Confidentiality

Data exposure

Medium

High

Cloud security posture management, least privilege, regular audits

Mobile

Inadequate mobile device management

Integrity

Policy violations

Medium

Medium

MDM solution, automated patching, compliance monitoring, device inventory

Human

Weak/reused passwords

Confidentiality, Authenticity

Account takeover

Medium

High

Password policies, password managers, MFA, breach monitoring, training

Human

Phishing susceptibility

Confidentiality

Malware execution, data theft

Medium

High

Awareness training, simulated phishing exercises, email filtering, reporting mechanisms

Physical/Site

Uncontrolled physical access

Confidentiality

Theft of devices/media

Medium

High

Badge access, locks, surveillance cameras, visitor controls, access logs

Organisational

Lack of incident response capability

Availability, Traceability

Poor incident handling

Medium

High

Incident response plan, response team, playbooks, training and exercises

Organisational

Incomplete recordkeeping

Compliance, Traceability

Legal/regulatory risk

Medium

Medium

Standardised records management, retention policies, regular audits, backup procedures

Tools/Templates

Note: Tool availability and maintenance status verified as of November 2025. Check project websites for current status.

Methodology

Tool / Template

Platform / Format

What it supports

Best suited for

Status

OCTAVE / OCTAVE‑inspired

OpenISMS (GitHub)

Web / open source

Governance + risk module inspired by OCTAVE Allegro

Small to medium orgs (10-500 employees) wanting free tool aligned with OCTAVE workflow

Active

MEHARI

MEHARI‑Expert (Excel)

Excel workbook (legacy format)

MEHARI 2010 risk assessment + mapping to ISO 27001/27002

Small/medium organisations comfortable with Excel, note this is a 2010 version

Legacy

EBIOS / RM + MEHARI

Oligo Risk Manager

Web / cloud or on-premises

Supports EBIOS RM, MEHARI, ISO 27001; scenario modelling, control mapping

Medium/large organisations needing flexible methodology + tooling

Active

EBIOS / EBIOS RM

EBIOS‑RM (SourceForge Access/ACCDB)

Microsoft Access (legacy format)

Full EBIOS RM workflows, import/export, scenario modelling

Organisations comfortable with Access database format, wanting full method support without licensing

Active

EBIOS / EBIOS RM

Agile Risk Manager

Web / client-server

Full EBIOS RM method, guided workflows, report and repository features

Medium to large orgs wanting method-aligned collaborative tooling

Active

EBIOS / EBIOS RM

Fence (Airbus Protect)

Web / on-premises

EBIOS RM implementation and compliance mapping

Enterprises or security teams needing scalable EBIOS RM tooling

Active

General / GRC

eramba

Web application (open-source)

GRC platform configurable for various methods

Small to medium orgs wanting unified GRC tool with method flexibility

Active

General / GRC

CISO Assistant (Open source)

Web / SaaS / code

Supports EBIOS RM among other frameworks, mapping, compliance & tasks

Organisations wanting risk + compliance in one tool stack

Active

Risk treatment options

When managing information security risks, selecting an appropriate treatment strategy is critical. ISO/IEC 27005 identifies four primary approaches: avoidance, modification, retention, and sharing. Each option can be applied depending on the nature of the risk, the affected assets, and organisational priorities.

Applying risk treatment: Once you’ve mapped risks using your chosen methodology, apply the appropriate treatment strategy. Most mitigating controls in the tables above represent risk modification (mitigation). If a control is too costly or complex, consider risk retention (acceptance) or sharing (transfer) instead. Risk avoidance means choosing not to engage in the risky activity at all.

Risk avoidance

Eliminating a risk by choosing not to engage in the activity that generates it.

Example: Mobile device security

An organisation identifies that employee-owned devices (BYOD) introduce a high risk of malware or data leakage. Instead of attempting complex technical controls, the organisation may decide not to allow BYOD at all, avoiding the risk entirely. In practice, this means requiring staff to use company-issued devices with pre-configured security controls and mobile device management, ensuring consistent security posture across all endpoints.

Example: Cloud/SaaS data storage

A team considers storing highly sensitive customer records in a low-cost, public cloud environment. Given the risk of accidental exposure or misconfiguration, the organisation may choose to avoid using that cloud provider and instead use an on-premises solution with tighter access controls. This eliminates dependency on third-party security whilst accepting the operational overhead of self-hosting.

Risk modification (mitigation)

Reducing the likelihood or impact of a risk through controls or process changes.

Example: Network access

Open or misconfigured network ports may allow unauthorised access. The organisation implements firewalls, network segmentation, and intrusion detection systems, reducing both the likelihood of successful attacks and the potential impact of any breach by limiting lateral movement.

Example: Software vulnerabilities

Legacy software may be exploitable. The organisation adopts a patching schedule, automated updates, and secure configuration baselines, mitigating the risk of exploitation. Critical systems receive priority patching within 48 hours, whilst lower-priority systems follow monthly maintenance windows.

Risk retention

Accepting a risk, usually after informed assessment, because the cost of mitigation may outweigh the potential impact.

Example: Minor operational disruptions

Periodic short-term network outages may temporarily interrupt internal communications but do not significantly affect critical services. The organisation chooses to retain this risk, accepting minor downtime as tolerable given the cost of implementing fully redundant network infrastructure would exceed the business impact of occasional brief outages.

Example: Low-value hardware loss

Small peripheral devices (e.g., inexpensive mice or keyboards) may be lost or stolen occasionally. Due to the low value and minimal operational impact, the organisation accepts this risk rather than investing in asset tracking systems, RFID tags, or security cables for every peripheral device.

Risk sharing

Spreading the consequences of risk with other parties, internally or externally.

Example: Cloud storage services

Sensitive backups are stored in a third-party cloud with strong SLA guarantees and insurance for data loss. The organisation shares the risk with the provider and the insurance company, reducing its direct exposure. The contract specifies liability limits, recovery time objectives, and compensation for service failures.

Example: Vendor dependencies

A key software supplier maintains critical systems. The organisation implements contracts specifying liability, service levels, and disaster recovery obligations, sharing responsibility for availability and security. Escrow agreements ensure access to source code if the vendor ceases operations, further mitigating dependency risk.

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