Threat categories

Threats are grouped by effect, not by attacker sophistication.

Degradation and neglect

Description: Systems degrade over time due to underinvestment, deferred maintenance, outdated dependencies, or organisational fatigue.

Typical disruptions:

  • Partial service loss

  • Unreliable performance

  • Cascading minor failures

Key characteristic: Often invisible until combined with stress or crisis.

Operational error and misconfiguration

Description: Well-intended changes cause unintended outages or instability.

Typical disruptions:

  • Sudden service interruption

  • Delayed recovery

  • Confusion about responsibility

Key characteristic: Happens during upgrades, migrations, or emergency fixes.

Supply chain and vendor failure

Description: External dependencies fail, withdraw support, or introduce breaking changes.

Typical disruptions:

  • Loss of monitoring or control

  • Dependency lock-in

  • Delayed remediation options

Key characteristic: Limited local control, high contractual complexity.

3.4 Criminal interference

Description: Disruptions intended to extract money, data, or leverage.

Typical disruptions

  • Service shutdowns

  • Data unavailability

  • Forced operational workarounds

Key characteristic: Timing often maximises pressure rather than damage.

Ideological or activist disruption

Description: Targeted interference intended to make a public statement or force policy change.

Typical disruptions

  • Symbolic outages

  • Selective service denial

  • Reputational embarrassment

Key characteristic: Visibility matters more than duration.

Strategic or state-aligned interference

Description: Actions designed to test resilience, create uncertainty, or apply pressure without open confrontation.

Typical disruptions

  • Ambiguous failures

  • Repeated low-level incidents

  • Difficult attribution

Key characteristic: Designed to exhaust trust and confidence over time.