Infrastructure → disruption → impact chains¶

This is where the model becomes operational.

Energy supply disruption¶

Disruption:

• Rolling outages

• Unstable supply

• Delayed restoration

Direct dependencies:

• Communications (pumps, repeaters fail)

• Water (pumping stops)

• Transport (traffic lights, trams stop)

• Public services (hospitals lose power)

• Commercial (refrigeration, manufacturing stop)

• Residential (heating, lighting lost)

Immediate impact:

• Households lose heating or power

• Businesses suspend operations

• Transport systems degrade

Secondary impact:

• Economic loss

• Public frustration

• Media attention

Decision pressure:

• Prioritise who gets power first

• Justify unequal impact

• Balance emergency spending against long-term stability

Water and sanitation disruption¶

Disruption:

• Unsafe water

• Reduced pressure

• Wastewater backup

Direct dependencies:

• Energy (pumps fail)

• Communications (monitoring lost)

• Public services (hospitals at risk)

• Residential (households affected)

Immediate impact:

• Households affected directly

• Hospitals and care facilities at risk

Secondary impact:

• Public alarm

• Health authority involvement

• Rapid trust erosion

Decision pressure:

• Act fast regardless of cost

• Communicate clearly under uncertainty

• Accept visible disruption to prevent invisible harm

Communications disruption¶

Disruption:

• Loss of internet or clacks coverage

• Degraded emergency coordination

Direct dependencies:

• Energy (towers lose power)

• Public services (coordination fails)

• Commercial (payments halt)

• Residential (citizens lose information)

Immediate impact:

• Services struggle to coordinate

• Citizens lose access to information

Secondary impact:

• Rumours spread

• Incidents feel larger than they are

• Leadership appears absent

Decision pressure:

• Restore communication before fixing root causes

• Manage narrative while facts are incomplete

Transport disruption¶

Disruption

• Bridge closures

• Traffic control failure

• Public transport outages

Direct dependencies:

• Energy (traffic lights, trams stop)

• Communications (coordination lost)

• Commercial (logistics halt)

• Public services (emergency response delayed)

Immediate impact:

• Visible daily disruption

• Workforce mobility affected

Secondary impact:

• Economic slowdown

• Public irritation escalates quickly

Decision pressure:

• Accept safety risks or prolong disruption

• Prioritise commerce versus safety

Public service disruption¶

Disruption:

• hospital system outages

• emergency response delays

Direct dependencies:

• Energy (life support fails)

• Communications (coordination lost)

• Transport (responders can’t reach)

• Water (sanitation at risk)

Immediate impact:

• Direct risk to life and wellbeing

Secondary impact:

• regulatory scrutiny

• political accountability

• long-term reputational damage

Decision pressure:

• Spare no expense

• Accept political fallout for transparency failures

Commercial disruption¶

Disruption:

• Payment failures

• Supply chain interruption

• Production downtime

Direct dependencies:

• Energy (machinery stops)

• Communications (payments, orders halt)

• Transport (goods can’t move)

• Water (some industries affected)

Immediate impact:

• Financial losses

• Workforce impact

Secondary impact:

• Lobbying pressure

• Media framing as economic mismanagement

Decision pressure:

• Decide which sectors to protect

• Justify public support for private loss

Residential disruption¶

Disruption:

• Combined utility failures

• Prolonged service degradation

Direct dependencies:

• All of the above

Immediate impact:

• Daily life affected

• Emotional response amplified

Secondary impact:

• Protests

• Loss of political legitimacy

• Crisis fatigue

Decision pressure:

• Restore dignity, not just service

• Address fairness and equity explicitly